Are we close?
An eight-dimension proximity index, scored daily from public signal across 46 days.
Background level — typical news flow, no convergent escalation.
The black line below tracks the composite. The eight colored lines track each dimension separately on the right axis — watch for multiple dimensions rising together. Convergence is the actual warning signal; any single line spiking is just news flow.
How this index works
Every signal published in the last 7 days is scanned for phrases mapped to one of eight dimensions. Hits are counted, weighted by dimension importance and source diversity, then rolled into a 0–100 composite. Each dimension is described below — the star marks the highest-weighted one.
Benchmark saturations, SOTA jumps, claims of human-level or superhuman performance on hard tasks.
AI completing long-horizon real-world tasks unsupervised — running businesses, doing research, using computers.
AI designing AI. Automated ML research, models writing the next model. The classic foom red flag.
Observed misbehavior — deception, sandbagging, reward hacking, scheming, exfiltration attempts.
Insider behavior — RSP triggers, ASL declarations, safety team resignations, whistleblowers, capability disclosures.
Datacenter buildouts, trillion-parameter runs, gigawatt power demands, frontier hardware deployments.
Executive orders, treaties, export controls, regulations, moratoriums, international agreements on AI.
Robot foundation models, general-purpose humanoids, vision-language-action models, large-scale physical AI deployment.
Source-diversity multiplier: a story carried by five distinct outlets weighs roughly 2× what a single-outlet scoop weighs. Hype amplification gets discounted, convergent coverage gets amplified.
What this measures: the volume and variety of visible escalation in the public AI conversation. It's a discourse-and-milestones tracker, not a forecast.
What it doesn't: private capability evals, internal lab decisions, classified work, anything not yet in the news. The most consequential events may never appear here. Watch for trend convergence — multiple dimensions moving together is the actual signal — and read the headlines yourself when the composite climbs.